Advanced economies have taken longer than expected to recover from the global financial crisis. More recently, the short-term outlook for global growth has brightened. Trade volumes have grown and business and market sentiment have improved. Looking further ahead, however, several factors will weigh on the world’s economy.
In the developed world, productivity gains associated with technology advances in the 1980s and 1990s have largely been exhausted and new advances in information and communications technologies have not yet translated into higher productivity across economies. Real wage growth is not expected to improve unless productivity increases, particularly in developed economies.
Ageing populations will impede the productive capacity of economies such as Japan, China and the European Union.. China’s economy is also slowing as it matures and this will affect global growth rates. Despite changes to financial regulation and supervision since the global financial crisis, risks remain in the global monetary system. These include high debt in major economies and potentially destabilising increases in borrowing costs as developed economies normalise monetary policy.
- Axel WEBER: Chairman of the Board of Directors, UBS
- Beat SIEGENTHALER: Global Macro Advisor, UBS Investment Bank
- Ewald NOWOTNY: Governor, Central Bank of Austria
- Harold JAMES: Professor of History Princeton University
- Jason FURMAN: Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy Harvard Kennedy School
- John FERNALD: Professor of Economics, INSEAD
- John TAYLOR: Professor of Economics, Stanford University
- Klaas KNOT: President, Dutch Central Bank
- Kristin FORBES: Professor of Global Economics and Management, MIT Sloan School of Management
- Marc UZAN: Executive Director, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee
- Massimiliano CASTELLI: Managing Director, UBS Global Asset Management
- Rolf STRAUCH: Chief Economist, European Stability Mechanism
- Stijn CLAESSENS: Deputy Head Monetary and Economic Department and Head of Financial Stability Policy, BIS
- Valentina BRUNO: Associate Professor of Finance, Kogod Research Professor, American University and CEPR
- Zhou QIANGWU: Director General, Ministry of Finance China, IEFI