The End of the Great Moderation


May 30, 2022



Session1- Since the mid of the last year, we have been observing a surge in inflation rates in advanced countries. What are the causes? Was the surge caused mainly by temporary bottlenecks in global value chains? Was it caused by the resumption of consumer demand after the initial pandemic shock was overcome? What were the contributions of fiscal and monetary policies? Have monetary policymakers in major economies reacted timely and in a sufficient manner?

Session 2- The Russian invasion to Ukraine represents not only a huge tragedy for lives, health and properties of many innocent people, but also it is a major economic shock. Commodity prices soared, factories participating in international value chains are being destroyed, and economic sanctions took place. In this session, we would like to discuss what the economic consequences of this terrible event would likely be. What are the main threats? Are there any opportunities, such as acceleration of the departure from fossil fuel dependency?

Session 3-In this session we focussed on how central banks should react to recent shocks. In the case of stagflationary shocks, such as commodity price surges or even wars, is there a substantial trade-off between price stability and concerns about real economy? Could or should central banks temporarily tolerate higher inflation? What would be consequences for credibility of monetary policy and for anchoring long-term inflation expectations if they do so?

Session 4-Both the pandemic outbreak in 2019 and this year’s Russian invasion represent two “black swans” in a short period. How well has been the current monetary policy framework doing during these turbulent episodes? Do we think that it is time to substantially rethink the policy framework?


Welcome Remarks

Jiří Rusnok, Governor, The Czech National Bank

Session 1 – The Inflation Restart

Chair: Marek Mora, Deputy Governor, Czech National Bank

Alfred Kammer, Director of the European Department, IMF

Lutz Kilian, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – via webex

Luis Oganes, Global Head of Economic Research, JP Morgan London

Laurence Boone, Chief Economist, OECD – tbc


Session 2 – The Global Economic Consequences of the War


Chair: Marc Uzan, RBWC

Sergiy Nikolaychuk, Deputy Governor, National Bank of Ukraine

Harold James, Professor of History, Princeton University

Elina Ribakova, Deputy Chief Economist,  IIF

Massimiliano Castelli, UBS        Managing Director, UBS Asset Management

Debora Revoltella, Chief Economist, EIB – via webex


Session 3 – Central Bank Reaction Functions


Chair: Mihály Patai, Deputy Governor, Hungarian National Bank

Adam Glapinski, Governor, National Bank of Poland

Martin Galstyan, Governor, Central Bank of Armenia

Galymzhan Pirmatov, Governor, National Bank of Kazakhstan (via webex tbc)

Boris Vujcic, Governor,  Croatian National Bank


Session 4 – High-level Policy Panel: The end of the Great Moderation?


Chair: Zdeněk Tůma, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of CSOB, Former Governor of the CNB

Jacob Frenkel, Chairman, Frenkel Zuckerman Institute

Catherine Mann, Member of MPC, Bank of England – via webex

Claudio Borio, BIS, Head of Economic and Monetary Department – tbc

Manoj Pradhan, Founder, Talking Heads Macroeconomics


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