Secular Stagnation, Fragmentation of Interdependence or Emergence of a Multipolar World?
In the course of this meeting a distinguished group of panelists discussed the prevalence and possible long term duration of secular stagnation in affluent economies. Panelists also addressed the question of the possible emergence of a multipolar world. Indeed, five years after the official end of the last recession, neither the United States nor Europe—least of all Japan—has been able to restore anything like full utilization. This prolonged weakness is at least consistent with the idea of secular stagnation. Is a return to past growth feasible? Moreover, how can emerging markets become engines of growth and avoid middle-income trap? What is the rational behind the BRIC development Bank and the Contingency Reserve Arrangement, a number of bilateral swaps agreements between central banks and also other initiatives such the Asian Infrastructure Bank and the revival of the Silk Road? Should these initiatives be seen as alternative to the current financial architecture or complementary?